Customs data: China's copper, alumina and other metals exports surge in April

May 18: Due to sluggish domestic demand, andball supply is tight, China's metal exports soared to a multi-year high in April. Among themaluminaexports have surged to make up for Russia's supply gap.

data released by the customs on Wednesday showed that China's alumina exports rose to 170,000 tons in April, a high monthly export volume since 2018. In Aprilcopperexports also rose to a high Z since 2016.

amid global supply constraints, China has shipped everything from aluminum, copperand other unusually large amounts of metals, this situation was even more serious after Russia invaded Ukraine. At the same time, domestic demand has also been hit, as the state has imposed punitive blockades in major cities to eliminate Covid-19.

traders said earlier this month that China was ramping up sales of alumina to Russia as Russia's UnitedCo and Rusal International PJSC faced shortages of raw materials. This is not the first time Rusal has turned to China for help in countering US sanctions.

In 2018, when Rusal was directly sanctioned by the United States for a period of time, China's alumina shipments to Russia soared.

, China's unforged copper exports rose to 116,461 tons, up 53% year-on-year, reaching the Z high level since May 2016.

aluminum supply shortage in Europe

Foreign Media News of May 16: Aluminum stocks in registered warehouses of the London Metal Exchange (LME) are close to the low Z level in 17 years.

as more aluminum will leave LME warehouses and be shipped to Europe, which is short of supply, LME's aluminum stocks may decline further in the next few days and weeks.

in Europe, electricity prices have hit record highs, pushing up the cost of metal production, especially electricity-intensive aluminum. Western Europe accountsball aluminum is about 10% of 70 million tons.

Citibank, pointed out in a research report that the supply risk of aluminum is still high. In the next 3 to 12 months, Europe and Russia have about 1.5 million to 2 million tons of aluminum production capacity facing the risk of closure.

supply shortages in Europe led to the withdrawal of LME aluminium stocks. LME aluminum inventories have fallen 72% to 532 since March last year,500 tons, a record low in November 2005. What is more worrying is that only 260,075 tons of aluminum can be used in the market, a record low inventory.

International Group in the Netherlands pointed out that LME's aluminum futures continued Friday's rally on Monday as the number of aluminum positions fell to a historical low of Z, which also reflected the tight supply situation in the aluminum market outside China. In China, supply growth has outpaced demand, as the outbreak has led to weak demand. China in Aprilprimary aluminumoutput reached 3.36 million tons, a record high, as previously implemented power restrictions were relaxed, allowing Chinese smelters to increase production.

LME's benchmark three-month aluminum rose 1.2% percent to $2822 a tonne after hitting a one-week high of $2,865 in early trading.

, the discount on LME three-month aluminum to spot monthly aluminum shrank to $26.5 from $36 a tonne a week ago due to concerns about tight LME aluminum stocks.

in Europe, consumers pay a premium of up to $615 per ton for their aluminum spot, which is also a historically high premium of Z.

carbon tariff was voted in the European Parliament's Environment Committee (ENVI)

on the afternoon of May 17, EU time, the European Parliament's environment, public health and food safetyCommission (ENVI) voted to pass the bill text of the Carbon Border Regulation Mechanism (CBAM).

from the information received so far, compared with the carbon tariff plan proposed by the European Commission in July last year, the plan adopted by the Environment Committee of the European Parliament (ENVI) today has major changes:

1. Reduce the transition period for carbon tariffs to 2 years-from2025;

brief comment: the time point for real money to start "paying taxes" has been advanced from 2026 to 2025. The "wolf" suddenly came much closer.

2. Industry scope expanded-increased organicchemical industry,plasticand hydrogen;

Brief Comment: The negative impact on China's exports has greatly increased. The original industry scope basically only affected steel and aluminum.

3. Indirect emissions (emissions from purchased electricity) are included in the scope of taxation;

Brief Comment: In this way, CBAM will have teeth at once, because the direct emissions of enterprises are limited after all, and electricity emissions are usually the bulk. However, this change will undoubtedly encounter huge opposition from EU industries, because it will move the electricity price subsidies they receive.

4. Accelerate the cancellation of free quotas for EU industries under the Carbon Market Mechanism (EU ETS)-completely by 2030;

brief comment: same as above, it has moved the cheese of EU industry.

5. Extend carbon tariffs to all industries covered by the EU Carbon Market (EU ETS) by 2030;

brief comment: this is contrary to CBAM's original intention-to prevent carbon leakage. The European Union Carbon Market (EU ETS) covers a larger range of industries than those at risk of carbon leakage. Therefore, the coverage of CBAM should be limited to the latter.

6. Use carbon tariff revenue to support the low-carbon transition of Z underdeveloped countries;

7. Establish a unified carbon tariff enforcement agency at the EU level (rather than decentralization to member states).

after reading the text officially published by the European Parliament, the author may make a detailed interpretation.

here to explain the status of today's vote in the EU legislative process. Within the European Parliament, the role of the Environment Committee (ENVI) is to draft a carbon tariff plan that represents the position of the European Parliament. Today's vote means that a compromise has been reached within the Environment Committee (ENVI) and a plan has been formally put forward. Next, it is expected that on June 6-9, the plan will be reviewed and voted by the European Parliament. If approved, this plan will become the official position of the European Parliament on carbon tariffs. By that time, the formal attitudes of the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union were all together (the attitude of the Council of the European Union was basically formed in mid-March). After Z, after the three parties reach an agreement, the legal text of the EU carbon tariff Z will be obtained.

stressed in particular that today's progress does not mean that the carbon tariff has gone through the legislative process in the EU. It means that the European Parliament is only one step away from coming up with the Z-final plan. However, as Lust analyst Qin Yan pointed out, ENVI's plan is quite radical and has moved the cheese of the EU industry, so it may not be passed by the European Parliament. If it fails, it will be called back for "harmless treatment".